5 Reasons McCain Won't Win

5. The Republican party is badly fractured with regards to John McCain. His support among hardcore conservatives like Rush Limbaugh and the old school homo-hating evangelicals ranges between a tepid support driven by the fear that they had better unite if they are going to make a stand against Obama and roaring hatred for the man that will destroy the GOP.

4. For the first time ever the Libertarians have a candidate with national name recognition - former Congressman Bob Barr - the man who led the Clinton impeachment. Disgusted hard core conservatives and some Ron Paul supporters will peel off and join the stalwart Libertarians in voting for Barr.

3. McCain is having a hard time distancing himself from George W, who is currently enjoying all-time-low 23% approval ratings. There's a good reason for that - they are a lot alike in many of the most important matters. (Think you know them apart? Try the Bush-McCain Challenge!) The two are increasingly linked in the eyes of the citizenry, and there is practically no one but oil executives and defense contractors who can say "I'm better off now than I was 8 years ago" - the core gut check for any voter who is about to pull the lever in the voting booth.

2. The tireless and unyielding scrutiny of the campaign is going to draw the real John McCain farther out into the eye of the public. Here's how Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran described him at the time he endorsed Mitt Romney for the nomination:

"The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine," Cochran said about McCain by phone. "He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper and he worries me."

In his book, The Real McCain, reports:

In his 1992 Senate bid, McCain was joined on the campaign trail by his wife, Cindy, as well as campaign aide Doug Cole and consultant Wes Gullett. At one point, Cindy playfully twirled McCain's hair and said, "You're getting a little thin up there." McCain's face reddened, and he responded, "At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you cunt." McCain's excuse was that it had been a long day. If elected president of the United States, McCain would have many long days.

Indeed, is this really the man you want answering the phone at 3 am?

1. Most important of all, he's got no defining message. He's just a straw man fronting a collection of policies that are largely unpopular and ill suited to meet the challenges that America faces right now. This is evidenced by the fact that his campaign is floundering without vision or direction, with the second staff shake up of the year announced today. Now is the time for leadership forward, and McCain is a man whose judgment has been questionable even while looking into the past.